Global retail media spend to hit $200.4bn in 2026 as ad recall falls 47%, WARC finds

August 21, 2026 · adindex

Global spending on retail media will hit $200.4 billion in 2026 and climb to $223.4 billion in 2027, according to WARC Media's Future of Commerce Media 2026 report, cited by Manifest. That puts the channel at 15.2% of total ad spend by 2027, though growth is slowing: strip out Amazon and the 2027 growth rate falls to 9.8%, the lowest figure WARC has tracked. Alongside the spending increase, an Ipsos study run with Amazon and Walmart found message recall on retail platforms was 47% lower than recall for digital ads served outside retail environments. WARC links the weaker recall to ad density: Amazon, Walmart, Macy's and The Home Depot each carry more than 20 ads per page on average.

Placement volume on a retailer's site no longer guarantees a campaign gets noticed, even close to the moment of purchase. WARC Media head of content Alex Brownsell said retail media "converts existing demand effectively." Long-term brand building performs more weakly in the channel, he added, leaving retailers to weigh revenue growth against the risk of overloading shoppers with ads. Media buyers assessing retail media placements now need to factor in page-level ad density and creative distinctiveness alongside reach and proximity to purchase.