Data Insight: AI agents could handle 7-11% of Russian eCommerce sales by 2032
Russian eCommerce could see 400-850 billion rubles in AI-agent-driven sales by 2028-2029, according to Data Insight's five-year forecast, equal to 2-4% of total revenue, climbing to 7-11% (2-3 trillion rubles) by 2032. Early adopters currently lean on AI for product research: comparing specs, checking compatibility and finding alternatives, with only a third of those sessions ending in an added-to-cart item and payment handled only for routine micropayments such as taxi rides. Data Insight expects the market to converge on an "agent with confirmation" model, where AI assembles the cart and terms while the buyer approves the payment, and predicts large retailers will roll out their own Copilot-style assistants for pet supplies, household goods, groceries, medicines and technically complex categories that need consultation.
Ad budgets follow the shift: Data Insight expects spending to move toward promotion inside AI-agent responses as retailers hand agents access to personal pricing, discounts and purchase history. Universal agents become the gatekeeper for seller selection, and in-house Copilot assistants turn into retention and margin-protection tools with access to customer profiles and even medical restrictions. Media buyers planning multi-year budgets should treat this as a new, still-forming channel: minority spend now, contingent on regulatory access to global generative models, but positioned to command double-digit share of purchase decisions within five to seven years.