← All playbooks·Buying and negotiation

What you need first

• Upfront CPP by demo and daypart, from the signed upfront commitment sheet
• Current scatter quotes for the same demo and daypart, from station/rep sheets dated this week
• Audience rating for the target demo, from the panel currency source (Nielsen or GfK depending on market)
• Season scatter inflation benchmark, from the trading desk's market tracker
• Remaining GRP target and flight window, from the live media plan
• Client CPP ceiling or budget cap, from the campaign brief, if one exists

The procedure

1. Pull the upfront CPP for the exact demo and daypart from the commitment sheet, not the published list rate
2. Collect scatter quotes from the same stations for the same demo and daypart, dated to the current week
3. Calculate the scatter premium as (scatter CPP minus upfront CPP) divided by upfront CPP, expressed as a percentage
4. Compare the premium against the season's scatter inflation benchmark to flag whether the quote is in line or padded
5. Multiply the scatter CPP by the remaining GRP target to get the absolute cost of buying scatter
6. Subtract the upfront-rate cost for the same GRP volume to isolate the premium in currency, not just percent
7. Set the buy/hold decision: absorb the premium, shift GRPs to a cheaper daypart or station, or trim the GRP target to the budget cap

Worked through with numbers

Campaign needs 350 GRPs late in flight, target demo W25-49, prime access daypart on a national commercial network in Poland. Upfront CPP from the commitment sheet: PLN 145. Scatter quote from the same network for the same demo and daypart, dated this week: PLN 172. Premium = (172-145)/145 = 18.6%. Season benchmark for scatter inflation this quarter runs 12-20%, so 18.6% sits at the high end but inside the band. Cost of buying the 350 GRPs at scatter: 350 x 172 = PLN 60,200. Cost at upfront rate for the same GRPs: 350 x 145 = PLN 50,750. Premium in currency: PLN 9,450. Read: an 18.6% premium inside the seasonal band is a hold-and-pay case, not a renegotiate case; a quote above 20% would justify pushing back or shifting stations.

Where it goes wrong

• Benchmark scatter quotes against the upfront CPP actually paid rather than the published list rate; the list rate runs higher and hides the true size of the premium
• Match demo and daypart exactly between the upfront and scatter quotes before comparing CPPs. A scatter quote for a lower-rated daypart looks cheap only because it is different inventory
• Weigh audience delivery guarantees into the comparison. Scatter often carries no make-good, so a lower quoted CPP can still cost more once under-delivery is priced in
• Refresh the premium calculation weekly on flights longer than two or three weeks. Scatter pricing moves with inventory tightness and a stale premium misstates the real cost

How to know it is right

Terms used

• Scatter Market
• Upfront Commitment
• CPP

← All playbooks Calculated in Media buying software →